2024 & Beyond
By Josh Bobrowsky
2023 Recap
Stocks reach all time high
AI has breakout year with generative language and art that had far surpassed my personal expectations from a year ago
Bitcoin closes out the year up 150%
Cryptopunks close out the year as the most valuable 10kPFP with a floor price of 55ETH or roughly $125,000
Early signs of a second wave of NFT/Crypto games
Above is a chart of companies that are worth over $1 trillion dollars. 6 out of 7 of them are deeply invested in AI.
This is important.
2024 Thoughts
My thoughts for 2024 focus on 3 things. Ownership, AI and Gaming. I believe these will be the 3 pillars of 2024’s value proposition.
1. Ownership: Blockchain allows for ownership of digital assets
Combining the internet with ownership is going to add massive value to games and other online ecosystems.
Example 1: If I buy a book for $20, I own that book, I can lend it to a friend, I can sell it to a used book store, or I can keep it for myself.
Example 2: If I buy an audio book for $20, I don’t fully own the book. I cannot lend it to a friend, I cannot resell it, I can only listen to it myself or let someone else listen to it on my account but I cannot resell it or lend it.
Explanation: Cryptocurrencies and NFTs allow for ownership of online assets. This will increase the value of in-game assets for video games as someone can re-sell what they purchased rather than having the entire price be a sunk cost. This will create more robust online economies.
People will spend more time and money in games where they have ownership.
Currency and Ownership: There is a deep connection between the value of a country’s currency and their citizens’ ability to own private land. The easier it is to buy land, the stronger the currency of the country. You can see this in history over the last few thousand years. There is a reasonable possibility we will see the same stabilizing of currencies on blockchain with more ownership as well.
2. AI
AI is going to massively disrupt the world. This category is insanely broad and likely represents the largest shift in work since the Industrial Revolution. My focus is on how AI will intersect with ownership and gaming.
How AI relates to Crypto and Gaming:
AI allows for games to be built faster, for less money and using fewer resources. I expect to see more small teams taking on large gaming giants in the next few years.
AI avatars and personalities may be owned by individuals who purchase NFTs that hold the personality of an AI agent.
3. Gaming
AI will create deeper relationships between NPCs and players allowing for new levels of depth in single player gaming. This means it may be possible to create evergreen games that are single player. This would be a novel change as most evergreen games like Rocket League, Madden and Fortnite rely heavily on multi-player dynamics.
3. Gaming
Adding both AI and blockchain to gaming is going to introduce a completely new level of depth to what a user can experience in a game.
Predictions:
Higher value in game assets
If someone was once willing to pay $100 for a magic item in a game where they could never re-sell it, logically they would be willing to pay more money for that same item if they might be able to re-sell it for 80%-120% of the sale price.
We see this often with watches like Rolex and Patek Philippe where the watches have a high relative cost, but also a high resale price.
Deeper psychological connections
People attach more emotional value to things they own. The easiest example to view the difference between homes that are rented vs owned.
Combine this with deeper levels of interactions with in game characters and we are likely to see a very rich connection between players and game.
Faster expansions
This will open up subscription models for games with smaller teams. We have previously seen the success of subscription models with games like World of Warcraft. However, Blizzard has a very large team and a massive budget. With AI small teams will be able to release expansions faster that will allow subscription models.
Culture meets Technology
Look at where culture and technology intersect. This can be art, gaming, sports or many other fields.
With AI fast approaching many industries I suggest finding a field that is fun and exciting for you to learn about. Spend time to develop a specific area of expertise and expand your knowledge from there.
Conclusion
2024 is stacking up to be a big year for tech, gaming and crypto. I’m excited to watch what happens this next year. I’m deeply focused on learning while keeping an open mind that I could be wrong about my hypothesis.
Thank you for reading
Cheers
Josh Bobrowsky