The early Automobile Industry
Between 1880 to 1920 there were over 1,000 automobile manufacturers in the United States. There were relatively few cars, few roads and it was hard to see if or how this industry would progress forward.
If you had the brilliant foresight to see that in 50 to 100 years cars and roads would be ubiquitous in the US and invested in every company building cars you would have lost nearly 100% of your money. Almost every early car maker went bankrupt. The only 2 remaining are Ford and GM.
Being early and betting on the right players with the right timing are both required for successful investing.
Being early is littered with failures
The auto industry is not alone in early failures here are a few examples across multiple industries:
Palm: Predated iPad
Kodak: Film and one of earliest digital cameras
Blockbuster: Movies and Rentals
Blackberry: Largest manufacturer in early smart phones
Myspace: Early social media made over $800 million their best year
Yahoo: Early internet leader in search
What I think are the two most important macro trends today
1. AI
I believe AI may be the largest disruption in our lifetime at a scale that could be bigger than the Internet.
Investing in AI is tricky. Most bets probably won’t work out. Look to not just invest in companies but also how AI could help you build your own companies or expertise as well.
2. Web 3-Crypto
Web 3 and ownership have potential to play a massive role in the future of the internet.
The simplest reason is that money and ownership go hand in hand. Like the early auto industry I think many investments here will not pan out. But, the technology itself is going to be groundbreaking to add a layer of ownership onto the things we do with the Internet.
Bet On People Not Just Trends
Making the right investment requires betting on the right person, and the right industry.
Look for people who are:
Ethical
Driven
Dedicated
Talented
Can build at scale
Powerful leader
Qualities in a in a team:
Driven to accomplish something greater than themselves
Work extremely well together
Move fast
Willing to change directions
You can still fail with all the qualities above, but it is nearly impossible to succeed without them.
Conclusion
Being early on the next big wave doesn’t mean you will be the next Warren Buffett. Being too early can be as bad as being too late.
However, realizing the way trends are moving can help you make informed decisions about how to invest.
Avoid being too romantic or stuck to an investment because the general trend-lines are moving in that direction. You may find yourself being early and correct but pivots may also be required along the way.
Cheers
Josh Bobrowsky